About Syrian Civil War and Uprising :

While lack of freedoms and economic woes fuelled resentment of the Syrian government, the harsh crackdown on protesters inflamed public anger.

  • Arab Spring: In 2011, successful uprisings – that became known as the Arab Spring – toppled Tunisia‘s and Egypt‘s presidents. This gave hope to Syrian pro-democracy activists.
  • That March, peaceful protests erupted in Syria as well, after 15 boys were detained and tortured for writing graffiti in support of the Arab Spring. One of the boys, a 13-year-old, was killed after having been brutally tortured.
  • The Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, responded to the protests by killing hundreds of demonstrators and imprisoning many more.
  • Free Syrian Army: In July 2011, defectors from the military announced the formation of the Free Syrian Army, a rebel group aiming to overthrow the government, and Syria began to slide into civil war.
  • While the protests in 2011 were mostly non-sectarian, the armed conflict surfaced starker sectarian divisions. Most Syrians are Sunni Muslims, but Syria’s security establishment has long been dominated by members of the Alawi sect, of which al-Assad is a member.
  • In 1982, Bashar’s father ordered a military crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama, killing tens of thousands of people and flattening much of the city.
  • Even global warming is said to have played a role in sparking the 2011 uprising. Severe drought plagued Syria from 2007-10, causing as many as 1.5 million people to migrate from the countryside into cities, exacerbating poverty and social unrest.

When this war will end?

It will end not with a bang, but with a whimper.

By this I mean that it will wind down as Russia, Syria and Iran continue to weaken the rebels and force them to the negotiating table. Those who refuse will simply be eliminated. Sadly, they’re the ‘facts on the ground’ in Syria. Turkey’s temporary foray into Afrin and Manbij only serves to weaken the Kurds and strengthen Assad (who the Kurds have been attacking).

This may seem like a controversial step, but in the end, the Syria-Russia-Iran axis will declare the war over and the US – without any remaining proxies to support against the axis – will quietly withdraw from Syria. The news media will divert its focus to something more uplifting, like how well the Dow is doing. But Syria will basically be ‘another Vietnam’ in which the Western coalition really didn’t have that much of a chance from the onset.

That said, the US could very well choose to up the ante in Syria, deploy a bunch of carriers there and start bombing the hell out of Syrian army and government buildings, killing Assad and overthrowing the regime, but that would most likely end with Putin (the king of ‘tit for tat’) either overthrowing Poroshenko in Kiev with a Pro-Russian leader and absorbing the rest of Ukraine or covertly providing Iran with the means to successfully develop a nuclear bomb in the immediate future (because Tehran would no doubt be the next strategic target once its main ally Assad is gone).

Neither of these outcomes would bode well for the West, so it’s safe to assume that the initial assessment of how the Syrian war will end would be correct.


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